← 貓腳印士林店 HVN 賽季地區賽 Abyssal Heaven Regional

Water FractalTier 2

at 貓腳印士林店 HVN 賽季地區賽 Abyssal Heaven Regional

decks
65 (25.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
396 182-190-24
overall winrate
49.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.5% avg ELO -0.8 per match
expected value
48.3% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.3% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1279 · median 1272 · range 974–1543 (65 pilots with an ELO rating)
807 Q1 1182 Q3 1367 1694
22% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 20% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Wind Allies 10.4% 50 16-29-5 37.0% 38.0% 36.2% -4.8
Water Genbu 8.5% 38 21-13-4 60.5% 59.5% 60.1% +3.6
Wind Shadowstrike 8.5% 46 20-20-6 50.0% 50.0% 48.9% -0.4
Fire Aggro 7.3% 39 13-26-0 33.3% 34.9% 37.6% -4.4
Fire Suzaku 6.5% 42 24-17-1 58.3% 57.6% 56.5% +2.3
Wind Seiryuu 5.8% 31 14-16-1 46.8% 47.1% 45.9% -1.5
Wind Razorgale 3.5% 15 4-10-1 30.0% 34.2% 33.1% -6.9
Fire Exia 2.3% 10 6-3-1 65.0% 60.7% 53.0% +1.3
Fire Firebloom Burn 1.9% 8 4-4-0 50.0% 50.0% 41.7% -4.0
Water Allies 1.9% 9 5-4-0 55.6% 53.8% 55.5% +2.5
Wind Luxem Zander 1.9% 14 4-10-0 28.6% 33.3% 36.5% -5.6
Fire Tera Diao Chan 1.5% 7 4-3-0 57.1% 54.5% 54.9% +2.5
Fire Cinderbloom Combo 1.2% 8 4-3-1 56.2% 54.2% 54.3% +2.1
Fire Luxem Assassin 1.2% 5 3-2-0 60.0% 55.6% 49.2% -0.5
Fire Seiryuu 1.2% 9 6-3-0 66.7% 61.5% 59.9% +4.6
Slimes 1.2% 6 2-3-1 41.7% 45.0% 37.6% -6.6
Wind Astra Cleric 1.2% 6 5-1-0 83.3% 70.0% 69.5% +10.4
Fire Crux Mage 0.8% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 45.9% -3.0
Fire Umbra Diana 0.8% 0 — — — — —
Water Astra Cleric 0.8% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 52.7% +4.3
Wind Byakko 0.8% 4 0-3-1 12.5% 31.2% 29.6% -13.0
Wind Lorraine 0.8% 4 0-4-0 0.0% 25.0% 29.8% -12.9
Fire Luxem Tamer 0.4% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 50.5% +0.5
Fire Umbra Ranger 0.4% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 52.8% +2.7
Fire Wind Vanitas 0.4% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 61.3% +10.9
Water Dawn of Ashes 0.4% 4 1-3-0 25.0% 37.5% 36.6% -8.6
Water Diao Chan 0.4% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 39.0% -17.6
Water Penguin Mill 0.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 56.5% +10.4
Water Ravishing Mill 0.4% 5 3-2-0 60.0% 55.6% 53.1% +1.8
Water Tera Cleric 0.4% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 51.5% +1.4
Water Tera Silvie 0.4% 3 3-0-0 100.0% 71.4% 67.1% +12.7
Water Umbra Diana 0.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.4% +11.8
Wind Beast 0.4% 4 3-1-0 75.0% 62.5% 69.1% +12.2
Wind Crux Merlin 0.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 62.7% +20.3
Wind Dawn of Ashes 0.4% 0 — — — — —
Wind Diana 0.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 55.1% +8.1
Wind Exia 0.4% 0 — — — — —
Wind Overlord 0.4% 0 — — — — —
Wind Slice & Dice 0.4% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 37.3% -12.2
Wind Umbra Ranger 0.4% 4 3-0-1 87.5% 68.8% 62.4% +8.0
Wind Wakeup Combo 0.4% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 49.5% -0.5
Wind Zander 0.4% 4 2-2-0 50.0% 50.0% 41.2% -5.6
Decklists · 65 from this event

The 65 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 62 mirror matches (2 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 13 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).

Winners more often ran: Frostsworn Paladin, Fractal of Snow, Extricating Touch. Losers more often ran: Unstable Fractal, Frostbind, Diao Chan, Dreaming Wish.

↑ Played more by winners
Frostsworn Paladin
Frostsworn Paladin
Winning decks ran 3.3 copies on average, losing decks 2.9.
Of 62 mirrors: the winner ran more in 25, the loser ran more in 13, both ran the same in 24.
Fractal of Snow
Fractal of Snow
Winning decks ran 3.8 copies on average, losing decks 3.6.
Of 62 mirrors: the winner ran more in 15, the loser ran more in 3, both ran the same in 44.
Extricating Touch
Extricating Touch
Winning decks ran 1.6 copies on average, losing decks 1.4.
Of 62 mirrors: the winner ran more in 29, the loser ran more in 18, both ran the same in 15.
Fractal of Mana
Fractal of Mana
Winning decks ran 1.0 copy on average, losing decks 0.5.
Of 62 mirrors: the winner ran more in 18, the loser ran more in 8, both ran the same in 36.
Fractal of Refreshment
Fractal of Refreshment
Winning decks ran 3.1 copies on average, losing decks 2.9.
Of 62 mirrors: the winner ran more in 20, the loser ran more in 11, both ran the same in 31.
Wind Resonance Bauble
Wind Resonance Bauble
Winning decks ran 0.5 copies on average, losing decks 0.4.
Of 62 mirrors: the winner ran more in 18, the loser ran more in 12, both ran the same in 32.
↓ Played more by losers
Unstable Fractal
Unstable Fractal
Losing decks ran 2.4 copies on average, winning decks 2.0.
Of 62 mirrors: the loser ran more in 29, the winner ran more in 19, both ran the same in 14.
Frostbind
Frostbind
Losing decks ran 2.4 copies on average, winning decks 2.2.
Of 62 mirrors: the loser ran more in 20, the winner ran more in 13, both ran the same in 29.
Diao Chan, Dreaming Wish
Diao Chan, Dreaming Wish
Losing decks ran 0.2 copies on average, winning decks 0.1.
Of 62 mirrors: the loser ran more in 11, the winner ran more in 4, both ran the same in 47.
Awakened Deacon
Awakened Deacon
Losing decks ran 1.9 copies on average, winning decks 1.6.
Of 62 mirrors: the loser ran more in 23, the winner ran more in 17, both ran the same in 22.
Art of War
Art of War
Losing decks ran 0.5 copies on average, winning decks 0.5.
Of 62 mirrors: the loser ran more in 14, the winner ran more in 8, both ran the same in 40.
Xuchang, Frozen Citadel
Xuchang, Frozen Citadel
Losing decks ran 1.1 copies on average, winning decks 1.0.
Of 62 mirrors: the loser ran more in 22, the winner ran more in 17, both ran the same in 23.
Show all 94 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 74 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Frostsworn Paladin +0.19 25 13 23
Fractal of Snow +0.19 15 3 44
Extricating Touch +0.18 29 18 12
Unstable Fractal -0.16 19 29 11
Fractal of Mana +0.16 18 8 2
Fractal of Refreshment +0.15 20 11 31
Frostbind -0.11 13 20 29
Diao Chan, Dreaming Wish -0.11 4 11 2
Awakened Deacon -0.10 17 23 9
Captivating Opulence -0.10 3 9 0
Wind Resonance Bauble +0.10 18 12 12
Art of War -0.10 8 14 20
Xuchang, Frozen Citadel -0.08 17 22 5
Water Barrier -0.08 2 7 0
Glacial Evocation +0.08 5 0 0
Song of Frost +0.06 16 12 21
Frozen Dismissal -0.06 1 5 0
Viridian Protective Trinket +0.06 6 2 54
Grand Crusader's Ring +0.06 12 8 28
Fractal of Intrusion -0.06 17 21 8
Censer of Restful Peace +0.06 7 3 51
Blanche, Sheltering Saint -0.06 1 5 0
Bulwark Sword +0.06 15 11 1
Staggering Strike -0.06 9 13 0
Quicksilver Grail +0.06 7 3 0
Torpid Fractal +0.05 15 12 5
Scepter of Lumina -0.05 0 3 0
Acquiescing Rejection -0.05 9 12 1
Scepter of Fascination +0.03 2 0 59
Crystalline Mirror -0.03 1 3 58
Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace +0.03 4 2 56
Chill to the Bone -0.03 7 9 0
Backup Charger +0.03 3 1 58
Burst Asunder +0.03 3 1 58
Frostnip Pirouette +0.03 9 7 0
Mana Resonance -0.03 3 5 0
Safeguard Amulet -0.03 1 3 58
Fractal of Insight +0.03 4 2 56
Portentous Tanggu +0.03 17 15 9
Fractal of Polar Depths -0.03 0 2 0
Mystic Purifier -0.03 1 3 0
Fire Resonance Bauble -0.03 3 5 0
Raze the Land -0.03 1 3 0
Expel the Departed -0.03 12 14 6
Allied Warpriestess +0.03 2 0 0
Novice Healer +0.03 2 0 0
Reprogram -0.03 0 2 0
Coronation Ceremony -0.03 0 2 0
Resolute Stand -0.03 1 3 0
Conjure Downpour -0.03 1 3 0
Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa +0.03 3 1 0
Seeking Shot +0.03 2 0 0
Escape the Wreckage +0.03 3 1 0
Crimson Protective Trinket +0.03 3 1 0
Ensnaring Fumes -0.03 0 2 0
Vanitas, Obliviate Schemer -0.03 0 2 0
Primordial Ritual +0.03 2 0 0
Rimesoul Bishop +0.03 2 0 0
Fractal of Rain +0.02 1 0 61
Diao Chan, Enchantress +0.02 1 0 61
Jianyu, Fate's Premonition +0.02 17 16 8
Fracturize +0.02 4 3 55
Nullifying Lantern +0.02 13 12 32
Nascent Blast +0.02 17 16 5
Blinding Orb +0.02 3 2 0
Tariff Ring +0.02 14 13 28
Nullifying Mirror -0.02 10 11 39
Disenchant -0.02 16 17 15
Chilling Touch -0.02 1 2 0
Snow Fairy -0.02 9 10 0
Maiden of Shimmering Air -0.02 0 1 0
Revealing Mesmer -0.02 0 1 0
Deep Sea Fractal -0.02 1 2 0
Glimmer Essence Amulet -0.02 0 1 0
Cerulean Decree -0.02 3 4 0
Eventide Lure -0.02 0 1 0
Chibi, Battle of Red Cliffs -0.02 0 1 0
Incapacitate -0.02 0 1 0
Annul Spell -0.02 0 1 0
Vanitas, Convergent Ruin -0.02 0 1 0
Vanitas, Dominus Rex -0.02 0 1 0
Scatter Essence -0.02 0 1 0
Fast Cure +0.00 13 13 36
Spirit of Water +0.00 1 1 60
Water Resonance Bauble +0.00 14 14 17
Lost in Thought +0.00 5 5 0
Tome of Sorcery +0.00 8 8 5
Fragmented Spirit of Water +0.00 1 1 0
Turbo Charge +0.00 1 1 0
Scepter of Awakening +0.00 1 1 0
Diao Chan, Idyll Corsage +0.00 1 1 0
Bloom: Summer's Glow +0.00 1 1 0
Season's End +0.00 1 1 0
Kaleidoscope Barrette +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/21372/archetypes/Water Fractal